When Data Confounds Our Intuition


This post is by Tomasz Tunguz from Tomasz Tunguz


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Suppose you’ve been selected to participate in a game show. The game show host asks you to pick one of three doors. Behind one, the grand prize awaits. Behind the other two are goats. You choose Door 1. Then the hosts opens Door 3, revealing a goat. The host prompts you again, “Would you like to select Door 2?” Should you choose it? This statistics question rose to fame in 1990 when Marilyn Vos Savant asked it in Parade Magazine.

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